"At present, many people think that after Christmas last year, the high light season for China's foreign trade enterprises has passed, and I am afraid that the booming export scene in the first quarter of this year will no longer be. What is the actual situation? On the contrary, from the current situation, whether it is coastal areas or inland provinces, private enterprises or foreign enterprises, it generally reflects the rapid growth of orders at the beginning of the year." Weijianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice president of the China Center for international economic exchanges, recently issued a document.
The reporter also learned from the interview that some foreign trade companies have seen a substantial increase in foreign trade orders recently. Fu Yifu, senior researcher of Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the current overseas epidemic situation is still not optimistic. Many countries' economies are still in a difficult recovery stage and their production capacity is relatively insufficient. However, with efficient epidemic prevention and control and a complete and complete industrial system, China has well undertaken production orders from these countries, driving the development of China's foreign trade.
Just after the Spring Festival, chengshilun, chairman of Hubei Zhongxiang Xingli Food Co., Ltd., devoted himself to his busy work.
"Since the beginning of this year, overseas orders have increased significantly. At present, orders have been placed in April, and the total amount of orders is about US $5.5 million." On February 18, chengshilun said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, "at more than 4 o'clock this morning, he was holding a video conference with Peruvian customers to discuss orders."
In addition, Mr. Liu, the person in charge of the private foreign trade enterprise, told the Securities Daily that compared with the same period last year, the number of orders this year has increased, and he lamented that "the beginning of this year is very good".
"A prominent feature of the macro economy in 2021 is that foreign trade exports frequently exceed market expectations, and foreign demand has become an important growth point to promote the repair of the domestic economy. From this perspective, the recent rapid growth in foreign trade orders can be seen as a continuation of the strong export." Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the Securities Daily that the factors supporting the rapid growth of foreign trade orders include the following: first, the emergence of a new peak in the overseas epidemic will inevitably have a certain impact on the commodity supply of various countries, and the supply and demand gap in the overseas market has widened, which has gradually deepened the dependence on made in China; Secondly, under the condition of stable supply and price, the price of domestic upstream raw materials has dropped significantly recently, the cost pressure of export enterprises has eased, and the ability to receive orders has been enhanced.
"The entry into force of RCEP directly drives the reduction and exemption of tariffs on some export commodities and trade facilitation, and also has a certain stimulating effect on the recent increase of export orders." Wang Qing said.
This year, China's foreign trade situation is still facing severe pressure. In this regard, from the national level to the local governments, they have introduced positive measures to stabilize foreign trade.
Foreign trade enterprises are also actively improving their business models. Cheng Shilun told reporters that the sharp rise in sea freight last year, "one container is hard to find", to a certain extent, has affected the company's operation. Therefore, in order to balance the increasing orders and high shipping costs, the company has changed from CIF (CIF) mode to FOB (FOB) mode, that is, the supply company only needs to pay the land transportation expenses of the goods to the domestic port, and other expenses are paid by overseas customers.
As for the difficulties the company still faces in its development, Cheng Shilun frankly said that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is rising in fluctuations, which makes many orders unable to lock the price for a long time, and the price friction leads to the weakness of suppliers. In addition, he also suggested that the guidance of "green customs clearance" for honest enterprises can be further increased, which can also create a good atmosphere for the development of the industry.
Turning to the trend of China's foreign trade in 2022, Wang Qing said that taking into account the trend of overseas demand and the higher base of the previous year, China's export growth may have a "high before low" trend on the whole this year, but the year-on-year export growth is still expected to remain at about 10%, of which the export strength in the first half of the year is expected to continue, and the year-on-year export growth in the second half of the year may fall back to the single digit range.
Wang Qing said that marked by the effectiveness of RCEP, China's opening to the outside world has been continuously strengthened. In addition, various policies to stabilize foreign trade in the early stage have continued to take effect. The policy environment and market environment faced by export enterprises are improving. At the same time, domestic PPI has entered a trend high falling stage year-on-year, and the upstream raw material cost pressure will continue to ease, which will directly increase the profits of export enterprises and play a positive role in stabilizing exports. At present, China's export industry chain is moving to the upper and middle reaches of the global value chain. In 2022, China's export commodity structure will be further optimized, and the repair of overseas investment will also drive China's export from ordinary consumer goods to investment goods with higher added value. (reporter Liu Qi, Meng Ke)
Source: Securities Daily